Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at ストアチャンピオンシップ in HASUYA
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1327
· median 1327
· range 1327–1327
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1243
Q3 1413
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 18.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +8.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +3.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
